As Israel approaches its upcoming elections on October 27, the political landscape remains in flux, with recent polling highlighting a continued deadlock among key political factions. A survey conducted with 500 respondents revealed that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc would secure 51 seats in the 120-member Knesset if elections were held today. Meanwhile, the main Zionist opposition bloc is poised to capture 55 seats, leaving both sides short of the 61-seat majority needed to form a government.
In this closely contested scenario, two Arab-majority parties are projected to win a combined 14 seats, which could position them as influential players in coalition negotiations. The poll also indicated that former IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party would emerge as the largest single party, garnering 24 seats. Naftali Bennett’s B’Yachad is expected to obtain 14 seats, Yisrael Beytenu nine, and the Democrats eight.
Within Netanyahu’s political alliance, Likud is predicted to secure 22 seats, with Shas, United Torah Judaism, Otzma Yehudit, and Religious Zionism following at 10, nine, seven, and four seats, respectively. Meanwhile, Ofer Winter’s People of Israel party, along with HaMiluimnikim and Blue and White, failed to meet the 3.25% electoral threshold required for Knesset entry.
Faced with the possibility of another electoral stalemate, opinions among the electorate vary. Approximately 31.4% of respondents expressed a preference for another election, while 29.6% favored forming a unity government. Supporters of Netanyahu showed a significant inclination towards a unity government at 45.02%, whereas those opposed to him leaned most strongly towards a minority government, with 39.79% in favor.
The poll’s findings underscore the ongoing uncertainty in Israeli politics, with no clear path to a stable government configuration. The margin of error for the survey stands at 4.4 percentage points, reflecting the volatile and competitive nature of the current political environment.