For years, Iran has relied on its “Axis of Resistance”—a network of militias including Hezbollah and the Houthis—to deter Western aggression. However, the current crisis has exposed significant cracks in this strategy. While Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem has warned that a war on Iran would “ignite the region,” many of these proxies are still reeling from the June war and have shown hesitancy to act. The Iranian government is bracing for a strike that would exploit this disarray.
US and Israeli intelligence suggest that the Revolutionary Guards are struggling to coordinate with their regional allies amidst the 18-day internet blackout. The “massive fleet” currently in the region is positioned to intercept any proxy retaliation, effectively isolating Iran from its external support system. The Iranian government is bracing for a strike that will be a “direct confrontation,” forcing the clerical leadership to fight its own battles without the shield of its militant proxies.
Inside Lebanon and Yemen, there is little appetite for a new conflict that would further degrade local capabilities. The “hesitancy to get involved” mentioned by activists highlights the success of the US-led strategy to contain Iranian influence. The Iranian government is bracing for a strike that will likely include the targeting of IRGC command hubs that manage these proxy relationships, further paralyzing the regime’s ability to retaliate across the Levant.
Tehran’s Foreign Ministry has warned of “insecurity for everyone,” but these threats are losing their sting as the US reinforces its air and missile defenses in Jordan and Qatar. The deployment of THAAD and Patriot batteries ensures that any desperate missile barrage from Iran or its proxies can be neutralized. The Iranian government is bracing for a strike that is designed to prove that the “Axis of Resistance” is a paper tiger when faced with the full might of the American armada.
The paradoxical situation is that the very proxies meant to protect the regime are now becoming “accessible targets” for US and Israeli aircraft. The Iranian government is bracing for a strike that would not only topple the leadership in Tehran but also dismantle the entire regional architecture of Iranian-backed militancy. As the USS Abraham Lincoln advances, the era of proxy deterrence may be coming to a violent and “regret-inducing” end.